i'm an extreme example. the shift in policy from carbon taxes, which are an extremely progressive form of taxation, to upper class tax cuts, which is extremely regressive taxation, will not cost your average taxpayer over $30,000 in the long run.
however, carney's analysis is not based on math or facts, it's based on flawed political perception. it's magical thinking.
the actual facts are that most people are going to be worse off as a result of this shift, albeit not by as much, and they should slowly figure it out over the next few months, as the right-wing propaganda wears off and individual budgets assert themselves. people are going to realize they have less money now than they did a year or two ago and realize it's because they took away the carbon rebates, without sufficiently replacing them (unless you're rich. then you get a big tax cut this year. but that's only going to be the case for a very small percentage of people. most people are going to come up short.).
it's not entirely clear what the political ramifications will be once people realize they're actually economically worse off after having the carbon tax cancelled than they were when the carbon tax was in place. the political class seems to be trying to blame the decrease in income caused by the reversal of the carbon tax on grocery stores, on trump or on the phony war in the persian gulf. the phony war may have some minimal effect on inflation, but it won't be a fraction of the income lost from the removal of the carbon rebate for the vast majority of canadians. canadians should just stop to do the math and realize that they're $200 short this july because the government took the rebate away. however, canadians have proven that they're pretty stupid and pretty bad at math, so they might fall for the deflections and the liberals might get away with what is in truth a pretty devastatingly bad policy for low to medium income canadians, at the benefit of the corporate sector and the rich.