http://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.ca/2015/10/i-complain-about-models.html

actual results:

liberal - 184  (missed by 25ish)
conservative - 99  (i nailed this)
ndp - 44 (i nailed this)
bloc - 10 (missed by 25ish)
green - 1

my argument was that the increased liberal numbers in quebec would elect a lot of bloc mps, by accident. it turns out that this was too fancy of an argument, and i would have totally nailed it had i just looked at the swings directly.