Wednesday, March 28, 2018

regarding the "free syrian army".

you need to be careful with videos coming to you from the region, because it's 98% propaganda, and intended to sway western attitudes. but, these aren't good guys, and they're going to do bad things.

the difference between the saudi-backed groups and the turkish-backed groups, however, is that the saudi-backed groups are being funded by people that want to set up these systems permanently, while the turkish-backed groups are foreign mercenaries being used as muscle - and the eventual intent is to clear them out and restore order.

so, yes: they are more or less the same thing, on the ground. but, the people paying them have almost diametrically different intentions. back when this was a turkish-saudi proxy war to take over the space left vacant by russian influence, there was little reason to think the turks would have supported anything other than a democratic transition, while the saudi aim appears to have been to prevent a democratic transition.

what the kurds were trying to do in the area was not sustainable, and not an intelligent approach, in the long run. they can't fight professional armies, like this. as a taz it served it's purpose; now, it's time to pack their things and start over somewhere else. and that is what this was - a taz. it could have never been permanent.

permanent change must be structural.

so, it's crazy to suggest they won't get slaughtered, if they stay.

the way to get rid of the fsa, from here on in, is through syrian law enforcement. expect the turks to cut the cord fairly soon.