Saturday, February 1, 2020

this is an interesting poll - and it's not a crystall ball - but it does suggest that biden is most likely to benefit from klobuchar's likely early exit.

if you look at the polls closely, sanders needs a candidate like klobuchar to siphon votes away from biden in order to be competitive. but, due to the way the caucuses work, she can't split the vote. 

i have low confidence in my analysis, with this. there are a lot of candidates, there's a lot of uncertainty and there's a lot of volatility.

but, i think the sanders people will be disappointed.

i think biden squeezes out a technical win in iowa in the end, even if it's functionally a split.