Sunday, May 16, 2021

no, listen. it's important that we get this right - because the world has a history of getting this wrong, and what happens when the world gets this wrong tends to be rather terrible, if continually repeatable. specifically, let's make sure we understand who the bad guys are here, let's make sure that we're not scapegoating, let's make sure that we get it - and not repeat the mistakes of those that didn't.

israel is roughly the size of new jersey and has population demographics roughly the size of it as well, meaning it would be the sixth smallest state in the union, if it were a part of the union, which it functionally is. and, i believe that that calculation includes the west bank. while it has a capable military and relative technological superiority that gives it substantive power in the region, it is nonetheless a relatively small country (slightly larger than slovakia, and slightly smaller than el salvador.) with relatively limited influence outside of it's immediate scope. it has no allies in the region, and few allies out of it.

the united states remains the global hegemon, with unrivalled global military dominance, including unmatched air supremacy. it remains at the top of the hierarchy of all of the global dominant military, economic, financial, intelligence-sharing and cultural institutions, as it designed the world to exist after the second world war - institutions that, as it happens to be, do not include israel as a member state, but rather as a distant second-rate also-ally. 

these are merely the facts: the united states runs the world, and israel isn't even invited.

so, what exactly does it mean to suggest that the united states needs to stand up to israel? what do those words mean? it's a conspiracy theory, and it exists outside of any remote concept of reality.

and, so this is what we have in front of us with this conflict - neither side exists in reality, bases it's arguments around reality or references reality when it analyzes the situation, or presents solutions to it. that is where we are with this, and it's exceedingly dangerous.

bernie is closer to reality when he points to the massive american military subsidies that israel requires to exist, but he states it without the necessary context, namely the importance of the hegemonic power having a dominant military presence in the oil-producing regions, and the importance of keeping the groups indigenous to the region in constant conflict with each other, to prevent them from utilizing that wealth to challenge the hegemonic power's hegemony.

but, if you really want to actually understand this, you need to read bernie's source, which is chomsky. chomsky will tell you the truth, which is that israel will not act outside of the hegemon's control - and that it constantly, always, seeks approval before it strikes. something like what we're seeing in gaza today could not and cannot happen without biden signing off on it, first.

there's a naive reading to this, which is that this person is just a kid and she doesn't understand what she's saying, and i'm still leaning in that direction, which should be obvious. but, such an analysis has an expiry date, and there are plenty of signals that it should be retired, in this case for a much more sinister reading: which is that she's being sent out to blur the narrative, in a very historically predictable way.

i don't quote the ayatollah often, but remember - israel is merely the little satan. the great satan is the president of the united states.

and, we need to understand the balance of power as a first step if we want to do anything about this - and stop pretending that america gets it's orders from israel. it's absurd.

the irony is that the only real solution is carbon transition, and this won't end until we get off oil - if the palestinians don't merely get wiped out, first.