Saturday, July 23, 2016

i disagree. i mean, i don't like the pick, don't get me wrong. but, i think the silent majority has at least one more election in it, and kaine/clinton is exactly what that silent majority wants: quiet, stable status quo. in game theory terms, it completely dominates trump in the centre.

consider abortion. trump made a huge error in listening to special interest groups on abortion, and the pence thing sends the message that they're going to get right-wing justices. but, do most republicans want to end funding? of course they don't. most republicans have a middle-of-the-road position on this that is closer to where tim kaine stands. they dominate the center on this issue, and will appeal more to the wide swath of voters on both sides of the spectrum as a consequence of it.

or, you could look at foreign policy. do most republicans want to pull out of nato or cut funding? not at all. they're going to lean closer to where hillary stands. do most republicans oppose the tpp? not at all. & etc.

this could bump stein up to 10% over night, but it won't matter if she makes it up by winning moderate republicans. forget about virginia. why isn't missouri in play? arkansas? those are the kinds of states she should be going after, and that she can win by fighting the election on the center-right.