Thursday, May 24, 2018

the mainstreet poll should be out tomorrow, i think. we'll see if it picks up the same movement to the ndp or not.

if it doesn't, the media will reject it as an "outlier". wrong.

it's the only scientific poll in the field. you can't be an outlier, when the sample size is one.

rather, what it will demonstrate - again - is that the "online polling" is merely propaganda.

if it does pick up the same trend, what we'll need to look at is how it's being quantified. i would not be surprised, at this point, to see some firming of ndp support at the expense of the liberals - if for no other reason that the media is pushing it down so strongly. but, i would be very surprised to see the ndp competing with the tories for first place.

i think that what the polling is going to reveal is the following:

1) are undecideds remaining steady, or are they beginning to shift one way or another?
2) how seriously do we need to take the idea of a hung parliament?