Wednesday, July 15, 2020

so, with the most recent border extension, i'm now in the awkward position of actively cheering on the spread of this virus in canada....

there is no science underlying the border "closures", which are truly no such thing, and no meaningful reason at all (except the logical fallacy of "common sense", which almost always leads to faulty deductions) to think they're having any effect whatsoever on the spread of the virus in canada. there is no reason, at all, right now, to expect that canada will not follow the united states into a major outbreak within the next two-three months, as it has had roughly similar infection rates, relative to population numbers, once you control for the fact that we are about 2-3 months behind the united states on the pandemic curve.

so, i don't think the canadian response to this virus has been very impressive, at all, actually.

i don't think we're doing a better job in containing the virus than they are - the data doesn't support that deduction, remotely.

i don't think that the border closures will stop the upcoming outbreak, which is likely currently in a process of development. wait for it.

and, i don't expect that the outbreak will be any different here when it happens, after you've given it some time to build roots in various communities and maybe even get into some local animals as reservoirs. i saw a shallow grave on somebody's lawn yesterday, and it got me to thinking about this thing getting into the raccoon or fox population, in which case we should expect periodic zoonotic transmission effects, like rabies.

so, what is this utter stupidity that we continue to be subjected to by this backwards, hard-right, populist-nationalist (the word for this is fascist) government?

well, i just described it didn't i?

the border is not closed because of the virus, the border is closed because a very weak liberal minority government is attempting to co-opt a trumpist foreign policy to maintain it's hold on power. not only have they managed to avoid elections (it's very likely that this government would have fallen this month, otherwise), but they haven't even passed a budget. it's a godsend for them, really.

all i can do is request that you don't fall for it.

but, you probably will.

because you're not very smart.