Monday, October 19, 2020

and, just to be clear, despite the headlines, the way you read the death chart in the united states is like this:

you have to be careful that you don't project regressions forwards like that, or we'll have people born from covid, in the end.

but, the trend is clear enough, and there's little reason to think it won't hold, given that the virus is too weak for another substantive wave.

we'll probably never know if they did it on purpose or not, but the americans have functionally moved towards a herd immunity strategy, and they've just about maxed out on the amount of death this thing can actually cause.

in canada, the number where it starts to slow down on it's own is about 20,000 deaths, and we're nowhere near it. so, we could quite conceivably have a scenario where this thing is more or less done in the states in the spring, while we're still dragging our asses through a few deaths a week.