Friday, September 25, 2020

i'm not saying the vaccine "won't work".

i'm reminding you that vaccines have success rates, and they're determined by a variety of factors like (1) how vicious the virus is and (2) how fast it mutates. so, some vaccines - like the measles vaccine - have a very high success rate, because the virus is relatively stable and pretty much necessary to fight off. others, like the flu, have lower success rates because the virus they're trying to protect against mutates so quickly. and, this is really in a new category - the virus has been relatively stable (so far. we'll see if an attempt at vaccination spurs it to mutate.), but it's extraordinarily weak. so, there's no guarantee your body will generate antibodies at all.

it will help, surely.

but, it's not going to be the end of this, and especially not if we continue to try to shelter ourselves.

so, if you think we just need to hide in a cave until the vaccine is ready, think again. that's not going to be how this plays out - we're still going to need to develop natural immunity, in the long run.