Wednesday, March 4, 2020

i suspect that i'll find a pattern here with this.

what you would expect is to be able to model the movement of voters from buttigieg & klobuchar to biden using a probability distribution. so, you'd end up with some type of curve. and, there's even some artistic license here, there's no specific right answer.

but, when you do the work and realize that the probability distribution that you pull out via empirical analysis is.....uniform? that sets off alarm bells, it raises red flags.

it's not technically impossible, and rare events do happen. but, it's exceedingly unlikely to happen even once, and approaching impossible to see it happen in several states, all on the same night.

i would advise the sanders people to...i don't know what they do. conduct independent local polling. ask for readouts from the machines. i don't know. but, do something.

it's like we're entering the twilight zone of election results with this.