Wednesday, March 4, 2020

so, what's the summary, then?

- the exceedingly compact movement of buttigieg & klobuchar voters to biden in the fourth northern states that voted today raises some serious questions about the sanctity of the results. however, sanders' showing was fairly weak, anyways, after months of neglect - which is kind of exactly why clinton lost there, isn't it? biden may have cheated, but he's only going to get away with it because sanders has lost enough support in his actual base to allow him to.

- while biden won the south, which was widely expected, he did so with much weaker levels of support than clinton did, partly due to bloomberg showing up and splitting the vote. bernie was not able to take advantage of that anywhere within the south. worse, he squandered the opportunity by polling poorly in the north. the dropped candidates are not likely to have performed very strongly in these states, so i didn't look at the consistency of the results very carefully.

- the west does not appear to be suffering from the same anomalies that are appearing in the north, and the results are more or less in line with expectations.

after being beaten in the north, fairly or not, bernie should be crushed and defeated. however, bloomberg has split the vote up enough to prevent biden from putting him away (fairly or not), and this will carry on a while longer.

however, bernie had better win a few of the states that propelled his 2016 run, and by substantive margins, or he's going to run out of states to win in and have to concede.