the way i'm reading the results right now is that if that if the conservatives can get to 32 in this current regional break down, and the liberals can stay above 28, then that will force the ndp to around 30 and we'll likely see results that look something like this:

conservative: 170
ndp: 150
liberals: 20

...based on the conservatives sweeping the prairies and ontario, and the ndp sweeping bc and quebec.

i may be exaggerating. but only by a tad.

i would hope that, with results like that, even the conservatives would agree that we need electoral reform.

yes.

32%--->170 seats. you don't need much for a plurality in a three-way tossup.
30%--->150 seats.
28%---> 20 seats.

of course, if the ndp can get that boost, and i still think they can, then it's over - for the same reasons. they stabilize over 35%, and we start wondering if they get 200 or 300, as they sweep the country outside the prairies.

if the ndp get a mild, across the board boost from the liberals then they can sweep ontario while losing the popular vote for the same reason that the conservatives can sweep it without breaking 33%.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-poll-tracker-debate-1.3188431