to clarify...

if these institutions operate the way they're supposed to, the way that the border tax fiasco will play out is like this:

1) trump puts his tax down.
2) mexico sues the united states through the wto (and perhaps through nafta)
3) this very, very open and shut case ends with a clear ruling for mexico
4) the united states reverses the tariff and pays mexico back every dime it charged, plus costs, plus damages.

now, i'll acknowledge off the bat that this is naive. there's a lot of things that could go wrong, here. but, they all lead to a fundamental collapse of the trade order that the american empire has built in the post-war space.

it could very well be that the americans stack the system with a crony judge that rules in their favour. this has two terrible consequences for the neo-liberal order. first, it destroys what little credibility these tribunals have. second, it sets a precedent that essentially unravels the institution.

the other likely outcome is that the americans don't enforce the ruling, but this would also unravel the system.

so, i mean.....do they want to unravel this order? am i missing something? well, clearly, i am missing something. but, that realization isn't clarifying anything. why would the hegemon want to unravel the system that keeps them in control? sure, that's unpredictable. but it's also incomprehensibly stupid...

so, i legitimately don't understand what they're thinking, other than concluding that they aren't thinking at all. and, i'm kind of resigning myself to the fact that i'm not going to be able to understand much of what they're going to be doing over the next four years, because very little of it is going to make any sense.

but, again: i never liked the wto, anyways. i'll drink to it's imminent demise. two tequilas and a corona, please...