i think this is probably accurate, but the intangible is on the right. i've pointed this out a few places. i don't have much more than phantom read-ins and a common sense argument on historical precedent; it's not convincing right now, but my intuition is not letting up on it.

if this phantom force on the right actually exists, it won't take a lot to swing seats. i need it to account for about 2-3% of the national polling, which is going to be under 10% in alberta. a uniform minimum swing of 3% to the right of harper across the province could be the bump somebody needs in edmonton (or in saskatoon for that matter), and if it ends up closer to 5-6% in some places....

the ndp obviously got a bump in the last election, but if you look at it carefully, it was really liberal voters shifting to the ndp in concert, and getting lucky on the split on the right. maybe a little identity politics, coming out of being the only female candidate (and there being two female frontrunners in the previous election). a 40% showing on the left has never been infeasible in alberta, it's just been split between two parties - and the right has always been united. the point is that it doesn't seem like there were a lot of voters moving right to left. wildrose seems to have attracted liberal voters under smith, who bailed under jean - but went to the ndp instead. but, it does seem like there were a lot of voters moving from the pcs to the wildrose.

i think that the dynamics are such that, once you try voting for somebody other than the pcs, it's hard to go back. it's just a mental block. an escape from the status quo. hard to bottle back up.

at the end of the day, it may be an excursion, and harper may recover in alberta. or somebody new might be sneaking in under the radar...

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/several-alberta-seats-could-be-up-for-grabs-poll-analyst-says-1.3220302