and, is bernier a threat in quebec?

well, he has two positions that most people know about - he wants to modify immigration policies (which is likely to do well in the rural areas) and he wants to end supply management (which is likely to do terribly in rural areas).

he would, in theory, make more sense in alberta, but he's a distant francophone. bernier lost to scheer in quebec, remember - and that's in a province with a small conservative movement, and little centre of gravity. in quebec, nobody joins the conservative party looking for career advancement.

so, if i'm a dairy farmer in quebec - the target of his immigration policies - am i going to vote against my economic self-interest to uphold some cultural attachment to quebec? not unless i'm a buffoon - and the quebecois don't vote against themselves like this, like kentuckians do. and, especially not if the bloc are offering the same nationalist policies without the attack on supply management.

he's apparently running around 6% in quebec, but we see this with the greens all of the time - it's a mirage. it's partly the math of sampling. but, you should also read into it as apathy.

regardless, even if he can muster 4%, i would expect that to be broadly distributed rather than localized. quebec is known for close races, so a 2-3% swing could absolutely lose the conservatives a few seats. but, it would be difficult to isolate from the noise.

the media is unlikely to step away from this, as it seems to like the narrative of bernier playing spoiler. but, i don't suspect the numbers will actually pan out - this is just statistical noise, in the end.