Friday, August 16, 2019

just for context, it actually wasn't that warm out last weekend. last weekend, i actually went for the shows, because it happened to fluke out into such a long fest. it warmed up nicely on saturday afternoon, but both the mornings dipped down to around 15 degrees, which is sub-60 farenheit. so, my comment about the 3rd/4th of august being the last hot saturday night this year lasted through last weekend, anyways.

as mentioned many times now, the one way out of the solar magnets this summer is if the ocean patterns overcome, and that's only going to happen due to cyclones. it is nice this weekend - excluding some potential issues with rain - and it's because there's a gigantic system in the pacific.

but, you can see in the long range that this weekend is an unusually nice blip.we're looking at a cold saturday morning, next week.


again: i know we're getting record global average temperatures right now, which means it's very hot in some places, but that's an average. i'm kind of making the flip argument that a lot of climate deniers make: i'm acknowledging the existence of record global average temperatures (which is what we call climate change actually is), while pointing out that the local weather in this particular region has been below seasonal for most of the year, and then blaming that on the sun. again: i don't argue in terms of false dichotomies. i'm not a conservative. i'm a socialist; i want dialectics. so, the fact is that you don't have to choose between the cooling effects of the current solar cycle (which is ending) and the greenhouse effect (which is continuing to run out of control). the dialectic, for this summer, is that both things are true: it is globally very hot (on average) while being cooler than normal, here, in this specific place, although the effects of all of these hurricanes might manage to balance it out better than i'm suggesting. that is, the averages here may end up being pretty "normal", as a consequence of these long cold stretches being overrun by these brief blasts of tropical air.

so, i do want to get out one more time. maybe. it's just, for tonight, the only real choice is crystal method--->goth club, and that's going to require something like two hours on the bus in the middle of the night. further, both shows are in air conditioned clubs. so, if the point is to go outside, it kind of fails.

i don't have a late show tomorrow, yet. i'm still looking. but, i think i have yet another path through hamtramck on sunday. they should just dig that city up out of detroit and airlift it to south of the 401....perfect...

in the medium term, while i can't predict when it's going to happen, we can expect that the winter jet stream is going to take over suddenly again, like it did last year. it's just a question of when. october? november? let's hope it isn't september, but highs in the low 20s for the last week of august is pretty ominous. if we don't get another hurricane, it won't swing back to the high 20s. i know it said it two weeks ago, and the hurricane fluked us out, but there's an even higher chance that this weekend is the end of serious summer.

that brutal jet stream pattern will lift when the magnetic field from the sun shifts, and while we don't have predictive solar science (we just don't understand it. nobody does. the science doesn't exist.), it's a coin flip whether we can get back to global warming here or not next year. and, when that happens, it could be pretty dramatic pretty fast. if that jet stream pulls back early in the spring, we could have a glorious summer....

or not.

we'll find out next year, right?