i would take this with a grain of salt, and the reason is that there really isn't any convincing evidence that the reproduction number is decreasing or is likely to decrease any time soon.

the argument is essentially "if you loosen restrictions, the reproduction number will go back over 1".

but, it seems to me that it's already over 1, that it's been over 1 for a long time and that it doesn't seem likely that much of anything besides literal martial law is going to take it under it. they're going to have to let it run it's course.

my position has been consistent from the start: if i thought these hare-brained schemes were likely to work, i'd be likely to support them. like everybody else, i want to minimize unnecessary death. but, i don't think they're going to work, so what's the point?

it's probably too late to even have this discussion, in montreal. you should be having this discussion in toronto, where you might still be able to salvage it if you overreact in the most extreme way imaginable.

i think this took longer than anybody expected, but montreal needs to brace for impact.

and, it's not the last city in line, either.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/loosening-restrictions-could-mean-huge-increase-in-montreal-covid-19-deaths-report-1.4932199