there is of course a caveat to apocalyptic scenarios in any city - eventually, you run out of vulnerable people to kill.

these were my projections at the beginning of april, and these numbers are simply based on protective immunity:

what are my number of projected deaths in....

1) new york city: (5799, 17398, 28997)  [projection: low end]
2) gta:  (4133, 12399, 20665)   [projection: low end]
3) montreal: (2800, 8399, 13999) [projection: low end]
4) detroit (metro area): (2866, 8599, 14332) [projection: expect something more like the middle number, due to higher comorbidity]

new york city and the detroit metro area have both passed the lower numbers, but neither have hit the middle numbers. i think i may have underestimated the effects of diabetes in new york city.

montreal is at about half the lower number and starting to ramp up. and, this hasn't even started in the gta, yet.

the point i'm making is that there are upper bounds, here, and while they may look gruesome, you have to continually remember that this is really very much an old person and already-very-sick person thing - which isn't to trivialize it, so much as to reinforce the point that the vulnerable need to stay inside.

we've all known old people. they don't fucking listen. and, at some point, we just have to accept the reality - it doesn't matter what rules we pass, and it doesn't matter how much we all "sacrifice", if they're just going to waltz around like it's their day of reckoning, anyways.

it doesn't matter what else we do if they don't stay inside - and if they do stay inside, it doesn't matter what else we do, either. we're focusing on the wrong concern....