it's currently a 57% chance that la nina will develop by the end of the year, which was the same probability that harris would win the election, as of october. chances are in the 70% range of a weak la nina that might maybe last for january-february.
given that they are not adjusting for climate change, i'm going to forecast that they will only actually measure a la nina for the djf period and when they do it will be a statistical wash.
it is there in relative terms, though.
this image gets it:
