Sunday, April 15, 2018

so, it seems as though the pipeline meeting was pointless.

here's the thing: trudeau can write some new legislation if he'd like. but, that legislation will then be subject to a constitutional challenge, and that itself will be very lengthy.

even if the pipeline is owned by the feds and it only goes through federal land, that federal land is still in provincial jurisdiction, and, perhaps more importantly, surrounded by land that is, as well.

the division of powers in the constitution is not specific enough to make a clear deduction, and lawyers suggesting it is are in for a rude surprise when they get to court. these lands are probably mostly subject to the changes that occurred in the transfer agreements of 1930, which should give the provinces jurisdiction over natural resources; at the time, a part of the reason this was done was to minimize aboriginal influence, as their treaties were with the crown, rather than the province. now that the province is onside with the aboriginals, the fed wants to take control back again, by citing the 1867 documents. that's not going to work.

this is going to take some time to work out, and everybody will need to deal with it.

that said, trudeau has some leverage, in terms of withholding funding. but, if he were to withhold funding to build a pipeline, it would turn him into a pariah, the country over. that would be suicidal.