nothing like a little mind aids to clarify your thinking. happy birthday to me.

the russians have been prioritizing deepwater ports for centuries. they really, really value having access through the black sea, past the dardanelles and into the mediterranean. so, the transit point in syria (tartus) is of central priority to a continuous russian naval strategy going back centuries. and there has equally been a british, and anglo-american, strategy to contain russian shipping through this region, for nearly as long as the russians have been valuing the access. this is a really basic struggle over control of shipping lanes by two powerful monarchical centres, two empires, that precedes the existence of the modern world.

the time was right for russia to be more aggressive in it's strategy, arguably even devastatingly too late. whether through real naivete or some kind of strategic fake naivete, the russians passively allowed themselves to be outmaneuvered for decades, stemming from an apparent (or contrived?) attempt to legitimately establish peaceful and common interests. with each clumsy russian gesture towards friendship, the americans became more contemptful in their deceit. something seems to have finally clicked after libya, where the russians were rudely discarded as fools. the russians seem to realize, finally, that the americans have no desire to be at peace. this is a very important recent shift in the balance of world power.

so, syria is quickly turning into a militarized russian base to protect those interests. assad is losing control, alright, but not to the rebels - to the kremlin. in the end, that's who picks up the spot on the risk board.

and bloody hell cry the saudis, who started the mess in the first place, by launching an attack from a position of weakness. the russians will happily allow assad to follow his enemies, and one cannot think there is any other option should he remain in power, under kremlin guidance or not. assad cannot simply quietly rebuild, and show up cheerily to the arab league meetings. revenge is inevitable. and why wouldn't the russians nurture that? some ruthless asshole probably pointed out that you'd better kill the fucker while you get the chance, when in such situations.

but in the end it's just the russians and english fighting over shipping lanes. same shit as for the last forever.