Thursday, February 12, 2015

so, to get your head around canadian real estate, you have to understand that it's not a free market. canada did not go through the round of deregulation that the united states went through in the 80s and 90s. there's actually somewhat of a government regulatory monopoly at the top of things called the canada mortgage and housing corporation that can do things like eat debt.

so, you get people yelling "it's a bubble! it's going to burst!". well, sure - if you're using the rules of the american housing market, yeah. no other outcome is possible. but, it's not those set of rules that are in play.

the reality is that canada can let this bubble grow just about as big as it wants and let it sit there for just about as long as it wants it to sit there for.

there are some market pressures, related to an aging population trying to sell forty years of inflation to a generation that has seen forty years of decreases in real wages. that's going to force a correction, but it's not a consequence of bad lending.

so, there are some problems with the canadian real estate market. but, if you're going to react, it's necessary to make sure that your research is conducted by canadians that understand the canadian system rather than americans making assumptions that nothing changes when you cross the border.

to state what he's saying in one line, it's merely this:

housing inflation has risen faster than real wages (which have actually decreased). that's unsustainable, and must eventually correct itself. wages aren't going up, so, prices must come down.