it's interesting to wonder how much of an effect that this fiasco had on the collapse of the bloc. the bloc was created to represent quebec's interests; at the time of this mess, they hadn't been actively campaigning for sovereignty in quite some time, and had instead coalesced into a regional block. harper has never been anything but reviled in quebec - and this is a political fact, not a cultural one. had all those seats been liberal or ndp, there's a chance that dion & layton may have formed a government in the first place. the clearest consequence of this mess was consequently that the existence of the bloc was acting against the interests of quebec.
harper's point seems valid if you're flying on the seat of your pants through this, but anybody with an understanding of electoral politics realizes he's not making any sense. we don't vote for a prime minister. we vote for members of parliament. the members of parliament then choose the prime minister. that's not an opinion, it's the way our government works. if mr. harper wants to take the unprecedented step of declaring himself president...
the fallout of this was very negative for the liberals. i've long believed that dion was sabotaged on the inside by ignatieff, who strikes me as a kind of a machiavellian bastard. and, in the long run they might not recover.
but, i'm here today because i think the liberals are going to be devastated in the upcoming election, which is beginning to look more and more like an ndp sweep. it's delicate. due to vote splitting on the left, the difference between an ndp sweep and a conservative sweep is merely a few points. 200 seats are going to swing on 3-4%. it's dramatic, and not representative of the country's will in much of any outcome.
and, i think stephane dion is sitting in what is probably the only safe liberal riding in the country.
i believe they made a mistake in abandoning him too quickly in favour of what they saw as a coronation, against any kind of logic. dion is in the mould of the previous leaders of the past liberal dynasties: he has huge amounts of experience, and has written some substantial legislation. replacing him with a tv host from another country that pretty much everybody agrees is politically a democrat was cynical and foolish. he had a set of very good policies. he needed time, patience and support. in a past era, he would have gotten it.
the remaining opportunists will abandon the party in october, as it is now void of immediate opportunity. i expect that the task to rebuild this party is going to fall on him, once again. he'll have all the time in the world, this time.