Arch from MTL
One step at a time. The Liberals will make huge gains back in Montreal.

They go from 7 to 21 seats they form a minority government.

Jessica Murray
this is likely not far from accurate. papers pessimistically yell that the liberals are only at a measly 25% in quebec. but they forget to mention that they only got 12% in 2011. that's going to be disproportionately located in montreal. and, if they're running in the mid to high 20s, they could also be competitive in some of the areas around ottawa.

the polling seems to indicate that ndp support is broad, but soft. it's less that the polling is wrong - if an election were held right this very moment, they could very well win that many seats. it's more that it's pragmatic in nature and could alter if the situation is seen to change.

the actual truth is that liberal support in the mid-20s suggests mulcair's own seat is far from safe.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-tom-mulcair-ndp-quebec-orange-wave-michelle-gagnon-1.3210553