the tpp just got signed.

i'm going to be honest - it's probably spitting on a fish. that is to say that the deal is no doubt bad news, but it's not particularly likely to make issues worse than they already are. we're already bound by a plethora of investor-state dispute mechanisms, and with most of these countries through the wto. investors in japan and australia can already sue us. and, if you go down the list and really think about it carefully on a point-by-point basis, what you'll conclude is that it's another level of trash on what is, at this point, a rather heaping pile. it should be opposed - but the sky will not fall, because it's already fallen.

but, what about the electoral ramifications?

harper's support right now is already down at it's minimal level. it's hard to see where he's going to lose support. the ndp is hoping it gets some support from dairy farmers; i don't see that happening on a level that's going to swing any actual ridings. best case scenario, he might win some ridings by 5 points instead of 20 points. rural ontario is too hard to the right. and, the bulk of farmers there may even buy into it, on the basis of faith in the party.

but, i do think that this is a big mover on the left.

i think we all know that the liberals will support the deal, bar the inclusion of some unmitigated catastrophe. if they make that clear, how much support will they lose? this is bad news for the lead the liberals have built over the last week, with little upside to it. nobody leaning left is going to move to support the liberals on this, and nobody leaning right is, either.

but, here's something the media may go out of it's way to confuse you about: the ndp are also likely to support the deal. or, at least, mulcair is likely to support the deal. can he convince his caucus, if he manages to win? what you're likely to get from the ndp over the next two weeks is a lot of obfuscating language designed to confuse you, and set them up to make either choice. if they win the election on this obfuscation, which is about the only tactic they have left, then they will certainly vote for the deal. but, if they lose the election by enough seats that they can get away with doing so, they will no doubt vote against it, in order to carry on the ploy. see, this is why i'm supporting the liberals - you can't get a straight answer out of the ndp right now.

they might surprise me. they might come out explicitly against it; in fact, i hope they do. and, if they do, i might consider it. but, in terms of the long game, the ndp may actually be better off hoping they lose the election, so they can vote against the deal and not tarnish themselves on it.

if they don't explicitly state disapproval, it is a ploy, and i expect them to vote in favour of it if they win. or, at least, i expect mulcair to. it could seriously split the caucus on the first vote.

so, please pay very close attention to what mulcair says over the next few days. do not assume he opposes the deal. and, look at the language he uses carefully for loopholes that will allow him to support the deal should he win.

i'll give you an example of what to look for: energy east. what mulcair has been saying is that he wants a new environmental review done, and then follow the recommendations. sounds neutral at first. but then he blames opposition to the pipeline on a lack of transparent environmental policy. the conclusion is that he supports the pipeline, and wants to use the environmental review as an argument against those that oppose it. but, if you're not paying close attention, you may get the misperception that he's opposed to it.

this is what you need to expect: obfuscating positions designed to confuse you. and, i'll be the first to apologize if he contradicts me.

which brings up the final wildcard: the green party. the green party opposes the deal. further, they oppose the deal on the proper basis: they are opposed to the investor tribunals. this is what people want to hear. is it enough that people will vote for them? and will it be enough to win some seats?

so, this could be seismic.

or it could sneak under the radar.

just please listen carefully. and critically.

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it would be nice to hear something like this from the ndp.

don't expect it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-trans-pacific-partnership-charade-tpp-isnt-about-free-trade-at-all-2015-10-05