Wednesday, October 7, 2015

you can bet that he'll sit on it, and the truth is that there's really not another option. mulcair can't vote for a deficit liberal budget, not after the stink he's made about it. you'll see the cons & ndp gang up at the first opportunity to nail the liberals on running a deficit, and we'll have an election over the first budget.

it's less that the platforms are dramatically different and more that they differ almost precisely on confidence issues.

what the governor-general needs to determine is who can get the confidence of the house. right now, nobody is going to get the confidence of the house. people need to get it into their head that a coalition cannot happen, and the media needs to stop confusing people.

the obvious comparison is clark. but, i think one might want to look at the mess in belgium a few years ago, where they went an extended period without a government. if the race doesn't break, that's what we're looking at.

right now, there's three options.

1) conservative majority
2) liberal majority
3) prorogue parliament for several months, and then call another election.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/election-2015-what-happens-if-none-of-the-parties-wins-a-majority-1.3261037

keithwilli
thats idiotic
4) a liberal & NDP minority that works together and rids us of Harper and perhaps makes a semi honest government

jessica murray
so, how are they going to run a deficit and balance the budget at the same time, exactly?

the idiot here is mulcair. he's boxed himself into a corner, and made the option impossible. i hope that there is a leadership review in the ndp very soon.

keithwilli
lol the same way every single other government has .
show me a federal government that has had a balanced budget

jessica murray
that isn't the point. mulcair can hardly spend the whole campaign yelling and screaming that he's going to balance the budget and "not even consider it a possibility" to run a deficit, and then vote for a liberal budget that purposefully is running a deficit. he'd might as well just got a tattoo on his forehead that says "what i say is meaningless".

for a coalition to work, mulcair would be required to step down immediately. that's not likely.

as stated: a liberal budget would be unable to pass in a minority government because the ndp would vote against it on grounds of fiscal conservatism.

a coalition is impossible. deal with it.

keithwilli
isnt the point?
your spouting about how they wont balance the budget when NONE do.
thats exactly the point now isnt it.
i think it should be law any party that wins has 45 days to bring in every change they promoted and if they fail then they are kicked out and the next on votes takes over.
they are all liars just which do we pick?
wont be Harper

we shall see.
i can 100% assure you justin wont get a majority.
he is most unlikely to even achieve a minority

jessica murray
ok. you may perhaps be unclear on the policies, although i've stated them.

- the liberals are promising to run a deficit. that is, they are promising to NOT balance the budget.
- the ndp are promising to balance the budget.

if the liberals win a minority, do you really believe that mulcair will open his mouth and swallow his leg? and, if he does so, do you expect him to be wearing a clown suit and be doing a jig at the same time?

he cannot and will not do that. and, the governor-general can consequently not conclude that the liberals can gain the confidence of the house.

at this point right now, the only way that anybody is going to be able to gain the confidence of the house is with a majority. and, there is no use in anybody trying to govern.

i have a hard time putting together the math that gives justin a majority as well, but if you want to get rid of harper then that's your only option - either this time around, or in the next election six months from now.

keithwilli
you seem to think you know it all and we shall see in 2 weeks wont we

jessica murray
i've got a crystal ball over in the corner, but i'm not jiving anybody with any cosmik debris. however, the flat reality is that it would be a tremendous act of political self-sacrifice on mulcair's behalf, and it strains credulity to suggest it's on the table.

keithwilli
well if they wont work together i fear we are doomed with another term from mr Harper.

i dont see a majority but i cant see him losing a minority

but i didnt honestly see the NDP winning in Alberta.
i think too many voted to have a strong opposition and it went over the top

jessica murray
i think there's an off chance that the ndp support in quebec could fall apart to the liberals' benefit. and, if it doesn't happen this election, i think quebeckers are politically savvy enough to make sure it happens in six months.

harper's going to be sitting and waiting for ontario to swing. i don't think that happens, either.

but, he can't support the purposeful deficit spending, not after his campaign's focus. and, don't expect him to.

the alberta ndp really benefited strongly from pc/wildrose splits.

William Hughes
I disagree. Mulcair has many options. e.g.

The people have spoken, Reluctantly I...

A bit of creative accounting. No deficit is predicted

This is not good, but an immediate election, that would probably solve nothing would be ever worse.

Reluctantly I ...

jessica murray
listen.

they put the options down on the table.

if you want deficit spending to kickstart the economy, you vote for the liberals; this is their plan, and they've been clear as day about it. if you're more concerned about ensuring that the budget is balanced, and want corporate tax boosts, then you vote for the ndp. they've been clear that this is their plan, as well.

i don't know what else they can do. they've posted platforms. they've run events. they've made it clear that they're not the same party - that they have different priorities and will behave differently in office. but, nobody is listening to what they're saying.

what do you want? figure it out and vote accordingly. don't vote for the guy saying he's going to balance the budget and expect him to run a deficit, or vote for the guy saying corporate tax increases are off the table and expect him to bend on it.

it's some kind of magical thinking, some kind of idea that the political spectrum will be what you imagine you'd like it to be, rather than what the facts in the platform tell you it is. and, this is normal, unfortunately. it somehow led to the anti-war movement voting for obama, for example, while he was explicitly campaigning on blowing up pakistan. and, then everybody scratched their heads and wondered how that happened.

again: the policy positions are on the table. they're clear. read them. decide which you prefer.

do not make things up in your head, and hope the parties can read your mind and create your fantasies.