but, if it gets to a brokered convention, that's not what the numbers will look like. you've only counted conservative states. you haven't counted michigan, florida, ohio, pennsylvania, new york, california, etc. in the end, trump will probably be still sitting around 35% - but cruz will fall closer to 15% as kasich climbs closer to 20%. don't be surprised, even, if rubio gets more votes than cruz (and half the delegates).

this is why it doesn't make sense for anybody to drop. the venn diagrams have a lot of overlap, and the directed graphs are really complicated. if rubio drops, trump wins. if cruz drops, trump wins. and if kasich drops, trump wins, too. if your sole focus is on beating trump, the best candidate to drop is actually cruz - because he will finish in third or fourth in most of the remaining big states. the only reason you hang on to cruz is because there's still a few closed primaries in deep red states; the last thing you want to do is drop rubio, as it gives trump a huge advantage amongst the swath of middle of the road conservatives that think cruz is too conservative and kasich is too liberal.

the most likely result of a brokered convention is not a cruz/rubio ticket, but a rubio/kasich ticket.