i thought he would win missouri and illinois by comfortable margins, lose by equivalent margins in florida and north carolina and split ohio. that's a little different than other people were suggesting. but, had it worked out that way, it basically cancels out and lets him move forward.
the results?
well, he performed about how was expected in florida.
but he did a little better in north carolina than expected, which is good. that said, he did a little worse in ohio than expected. in terms of delegates? that actually cancels out.
the disappointment, then, is that he did not do better in missouri amd illinois. he may end up "winning" both, but he's really splitting both, regardless of who technically wins. he needed to use these states to try and gain delegates, not to break even.
so, where he's going to lose delegates tonight is in underperforming in missouri and illinois - and that likely reduces to turnout.
spring break? maybe.
it makes it a little harder, sure. but it doesn't really change the race. no, really. if you look at it closely, it doesn't. he still needs to get about 60% over the next 9 states up to new york - and he should be able to do that. then, he still needs to win 50+ delegates in new york. from there, the math isn't really substantially different - he'd still have to win the next couple of dates, and he'd still have to win big in california.
so, it would have been a moral victory if he had won thirty or forty more delegates, sure. but it doesn't change the math....
--
no. really.
mo:
71*.6 = 43.
71*.5 = 36
ill:
156*.6 = 94
156*.5 = 78
(43-36) + (94-78) =
7 + 16 =
23.
not a big difference. he can make that up by overperforming in pennsylvania.