i think that wynne is essentially confusing people, in taking a handful of very progressive positions while selling off various things to the banks. the thing is that the unpopular positions she has taken - like selling off parts of the grid to pay off debt - are really powerful, because they bring back memories of harris. so, it's this difficult situation where the broad swath of left-leaning ontarians are going to agree with 95% of what she does, and yet be strongly alienated by the few unpopular things. that's different than the last federal election, which was broadly ideological rather than focused on specific policies.

the pcs are going to get a certain amount of the vote, regardless. but, the broad narrative in ontario (outside of the tabloids) remains to keep the conservatives out. i think, at this point, the liberals could run a sock puppet and still manage to win - so long as they remain solidly in second. a more likely scenario sees liberal support move in large chunks towards the ndp.

but, the ndp are not doing the kinds of things that would be necessary to facilitate that shift. they're continuing to run to the right of the liberals. and, as such, they're really failing to take advantage of an opportunity.

so long as the ndp stick to their current strategy, i don't see the scenario shifting. people may be uncomfortable with the government, and sort of frustrated by the lack of options. but, at the end of the day, the more important task is preventing the conservatives from winning. so, all those undecideds and habitual leftists wander back, in the end.

but, the ndp could very quickly build very strong support if it would stop trying to be moderate and present the progressive option that people want.

to put it another way, if the ndp wants to beat the liberals then it needs to stop being hillary clinton and start being bernie sanders. i see absolutely no evidence that this is in any way even being contemplated. but, i do note that the liberals are making some changes to their side of the tuition puzzle.

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/03/29/kathleen-wynne-approval-rating-poll_n_9564970.html

Ed Vella
These are interesting numbers. Andrea Horwath is the most popular, yet only 24% would vote for her, which is just confusing. The Ontario Ndp brand needs to pick up some slack. It's the same dilemma as anywhere for the Ndp; competing for media attention is the biggest hurdle IMO.

David Y. Ho
More like competing for relevancy when the Liberals are already leaning very left.

Christopher Gilmore
The Liberals are not "leaning Left," if anything Premier Wynne has enraged progressive voters with her sneaky privatisation of Hydro One, and has given Horwath a fresh cause on which to campaign.

2. It will be very difficult for Wynne to pull the same trick in 2018, pretending to be to the "Left" of the NDP after she laid off hundreds of nurses and privatised Hydro One despite not having made one scintilla of mention of it during the last campaign. Voters are pretty pissed off.

3. In 2018 the political situation will not be the same as it is now. The Trudeau honeymoon/love-in will have ended, meaning that there will be no positive rub-off vis a vis the Liberal brand for Wynne; Patrick Brown will either have defined himself to Ontarian voters or his opponents will define him as a scary social conservative; and voters will have forgotten Horwath's ill-conceived strategy from 2014.

Put together, this means that Andrea Horwath is probably in the best position moving forward. She is the most well known and trusted of the three party leaders, as the 2015 and 2011 federal elections and 2015 Alberta election proved, a party can cruise on the popularity of its leader; Patrick Brown has too many skeletons in his closet and will have a difficult time building a strong positive rapport in only two years time, and Ontarians are pretty sick of the Ontario Liberal Party.

They survived McGuinty's numerous broken promises, the Gas Plant scandal, some of the worst fiscal management in Canadian history, the ORNGE ambulance scandal, and the e-health scandal, but 2018 might just be their Waterloo.

jessica amber murray
but, it wasn't a trick. as bankster-y as wynne is, horwath is really, honestly to her right. it's not that the liberals are leaning left and crowding out the ndp; it's more that the ndp are leaning right, and forfeiting the space. it's a really stupid strategy that was pioneered by jack layton and keeps being emulated, despite awful results. but, it also really kills the credibility of the party.

i broadly agree with your analysis, but the thing that has to change for the ndp to be competitive is ndp policy. so long as the ndp are just another centre-right party, voters will flock to the liberals to keep the conservatives out under the absolutely reasonable argument that they have the better chance of winning.

and, that's not healthy - because it gives the liberals a free pass. the system needs vigorous left-wing opposition from the ndp. they have to find a way to break this cycle.

i think the immediate answer is that horwath needs to step down and make way for somebody who is more ideologically aligned with the left of the party. but, this struggle is really existential and is going to take a long time to play out. but, if the conservatives are honestly trying to reclaim that red tory space, it squeezes the ndp back the other way. i think it's a matter of time. and the left is consequently just forced to sit around and wait for her to go away, kind of thing. and that won't likely be until after the next election.

it's very early. but, i'm suggesting the liberals can hold on, for now, as the left sticks with wynne due to disinterest in horwath.