Saturday, April 30, 2016

j reacts to if bernie would split the left (he may prevent a split by running!)

(in reply to somebody's comment)

but, hillary also supports war against iran and mass deportations - along with the tpp and nafta. the wall is never getting built. and, did you know that clinton supports a constitutional amendment to limit abortion access?

i think most leftists would have to concede that trump is the lesser evil on foreign policy [he actually seems to be an isolationist, and seems to want to dismantle the empire - whereas hillary is a bellicose interventionist that will no doubt launch at least three unnecessary wars] and just flat out better on trade. his positions on trade and foreign policy are legitimately closer to sanders', although nowhere near as appealing.

where trump is really scary is his fiscal policy. i don't think he's going to punish anybody for getting an abortion. i do think he'll probably bankrupt the country.

...which is why you should probably expect hillary to run to the right of trump. while clinton may demolish him in a two-way race, it's going to be by winning red states - and by being more appealing to conservatives than trump is. so, clinton wins 40 states, sure. but, the result is that even the moderate left ends up disenfranchised.

i think he needs to wait until at least july to decide. but, i actually don't think that sanders really has a choice. if he doesn't run, what is going to happen is that jill stein is going to show up on the map in a big way. i share the author's view that sanders will win a three-way race, as clinton essentially pushes trump out of the spectrum and becomes the republican nominee. but, stein cannot win - not from where she is. so, if he doesn't run, stein could very well split the vote badly enough to screw things up.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/case-for-sanders-running-independent-if-clinton-nominee_b_9803982.html

to put it another way: somebody is going to run to the left of clinton, and that person is going to generate significant support. the real question is whether that person is:

1) not a factor. so, you could see something like clinton 55, trump 35, stein 10. that's a huge boost for the third party, but clinton wins anyways.
2) enough of a factor to split. so, then you'd get something like clinton 45, trump 35, stein 20 - but the electoral college would be kind to trump. that would be the reverse of the perot scenario that elected bill clinton.
3) or enough to actually win. then, you'd get something like clinton 25, trump 35, sanders 38, stein 2.

it ought to be a very delicate decision, made at the very last minute. and, if (3) is made to prevent (2)? it's actually "unsplitting the vote".

i don't think  you can put sanders back in the tube. his supporters are going to be looking for another option, which right now is likely to be stein.