Friday, April 15, 2016

j reacts to the new york democratic debate

i made it through most of the "debate". & the disqus run was the last serious archiving step. i should be able to do a quick clean up tomorrow and then get moving forwards.  i'm going to pencil myself in 4/22 as my restart date.

there's two ways to look at the debate.

if you're an informed, policy wonk type, what you'll likely walk away with, regardless of where you stand, is a clear difference in perceptions about honesty. clinton was a horrible demagogue tonight. on question after question, she distorted and deflected and misled. but, see, if you could catch her on this, you probably already had this perception of her. if you couldn't catch her in the lies? you probably fell for them.

see, i think that sanders is a very good debater. but i'm high information. and, even so, i realize that clinton is a better liar than sanders is a debater. i want to be clear about the language i'm using: i do not think that clinton is a good debater. i only concede that she is a good liar....

the dynamics of the race are such that clinton cannot gain anything from a debate. so, the question is whether bernie was able to gain anything. and, i think that, at this point, and with that performance, it's hard to see how he can break through anything. i think that he had likely already swayed everybody that he was going to sway.

there's also the issue of the closed new york primary. i do suspect that he won the votes of millions of people that are ineligible to vote. and that - supposing that the vote is fair - that may be the difference.

i don't expect to see any significant movement. but, i might suggest that you take precautions on voting day, as there's going to be a lot of very disappointed people.