j reacts to the polling situation going into the debates

i want to be clear as the week ends: my analysis of the polling is that donald trump has not actually made up any ground at all, but that various polling firms - no doubt in cahoots with the media -  have manipulated data to make the race appear closer than it actually is. this has been done via a decision to eliminate minorities and young people from the polling results under the argument that they're less likely to vote. this change happened across the board in september; it seems to be organized. the motive is to avoid the appearance of an uncompetitive race and the low ratings such a scenario would bring.

when polling results have been released this week that include the raw data, it can be seen that the actual story is stasis since late august. the numbers have not changed. the way they're being reported has.

while i continue to believe that clinton is very vulnerable to a terrorist attack, both on account of being a democrat and on account of being a woman, as well as in contrast to trump's messaging, the recent terrorist attacks did not gain the media traction that i feared they would and consequently do not seem to have had a polling effect. a future attack still might. i also continue to believe that clinton's best strategy is to run on economic and otherwise fiscal issues, including the strength of the stock market. i also believe that she needs to focus less on winning young voters (who will likely only be swayed by marijuana legalization) and more on winning older voters.

the broad takeaway is that clinton is currently safe in at least 270 electoral votes, which means the current state of the election is to determine the size and shape of her victory.