so, on the eve of a new administration that is not bound by lip service to environmentalism, let's ask a blunt question: what are american interests regarding canadian energy exports?
you need to take two major factors into consideration. the first is the need for america to control the supply of energy. the second is the reality that america wants to be an exporter, and is now in competition with other exporters.
canada's major energy export market is china - a market that american exporters may be interested in. so, is helping canada get it's resources to market (in china) something that sounds consistent with the goals of a trump administration?
let's rewind back to keystone.
the media presented keystone as an environmental policy debate. in doing so, it failed to report that the decision was being made by the state department. the state department does not generally make decisions about resource management. rather, the state department makes decisions about national security. and, hence, the decision was one of national security. and, how so?
again: the media presents these different pipelines as though they're a part of a comprehensive plan to achieve a monolithic end goal. the idea that approval of one pipeline may be contingent on the approval of another is never discussed. but, this is america's basic logic: if canada is going to try and export through british columbia, it is in america's interest to coerce the oil southwards, to cushing. and, if canada is not going to try and export through british columbia, it is in america's interest to block exports altogether, and present their own preferentially.
if you were paying careful attention, you may have noticed that the decision to block keystone was made after it seemed clear that the pacific route was blocked. and, any decision to revisit keystone will likewise be dependent on the credibility of threats to export to east asia. do you see how this works, now?
i know it's easy to get lost in the bubble. but, north america is only a theatre. and, canada is a foreign country. take a look around the world and digest the lengths that america will go to to control the supply of energy. look at what america does to control pipelines. and, do not trick yourself into thinking that this country is in any way special.
it follows that threatening to build transmountain may very well be a bluff to get keystone flowing. and, that's an offer that the president can't refuse.