yeah.

it's not that the polls have shifted. or at least, not enough to change an outcome. the polls suggest a likely tory majority, and at best a tory minority. a labour minority would be a very wide miss, and a labour majority is just not in the data.

it's the other factors - the ones outside of a fair electoral process - that are starting to lead me towards corbyn. but, corbyn advocates should not get too excited, as the win may be short-lived.

it does not appear as though the tories want to deal with brexit. you have to keep in mind that labour are the patsies in the british system, so they get stuck with the unpleasant business. in canada, it's the tories that are the patsies, and in the united states it's the democrats. the system ensures that it is these parties that pass unpopular legislation, in order to protect the reputations of the true ruling parties, relative to the ideological persuasions of the local ruling classes.

in fact, jeremy corbyn is the patsy of the patsies. if it is to fall on labour to negotiate an inevitably bad brexit deal, corbyn is the perfect one to do it as he can then be scapegoated for the certain failures in negotiation, thereby allowing labour to safely distance itself from him, and the tories to sweep back in as soon as the issue is dealt with.

i don't wish to ape the tory line, but much of what corbyn is suggesting is not likely to get through the parliament in much of any scenario. it's almost impossible to imagine the house of lords signing off on abolishing tuition fees, for example. but, the broader truth is that corbyn's time is likely to be so consumed by failed brexit negotiations that he won't have time to deal with much else.

i need to be clear: there is currently no polling support for a corbyn victory. but, i think they're going to give him one, anyways - or at least set him up for a win the next time around with a tenuous conservative minority.

expect those headlines to appear almost immediately.