yeah.

if you look at the polling across the board:

1) the liberals are down 2-3 points from a higher than expected result, but a result that was nonetheless around the historical average. the liberals usually get around 40% and are currently polling closer to 36%.

2) the conservatives are down 1-2 points from a lower than expected result that was also near historic lows. the conservatives usually get around 35% and are currently polling around 30%.

3) the ndp are down 2-3 points on what was a lower than expected result that was also near historic highs. the ndp usually polls around 15% and is currently polling around 17%.

4) the bloc quebecois, however, are are up 2-3% on historic lows. they usually poll around 10% or higher, and are currently polling at around 7% - but got under 5% in the last election.

5) the greens are also up 2-3% on what was an expected but disappointing result. they're currently polling around 7%, which is a historic high. they polled under 4% in the last two elections.

neither the bloc nor the greens are going to win the next election.

but, what's happening is that the ndp are completely botching their opportunity to take advantage of weakening liberal support on the left; rather, they are also bleeding support on their left.

the conservatives are probably just dying, and are otherwise just floating through space via inertia. how many of them die in the next two years probably determines if they fall under 30% or not.

if the bloc see a resurgence in quebec - and the niqab issue will not be the factor. quebeckers will not base their vote on this. - it could push the liberals into a minority, where they will need to rely on ndp or potentially green support, if they can finally pull it together a little.

but, the outcome of the next election does not seem in question: the liberals are quite obviously going to win.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.