i just want to post a last update on the ontario pc race.

as expected, the media is mostly assuming that tga is taking votes from ford, but i can't imagine that this is actually true - tga is probably mostly taking votes from mulroney, and to a lesser extent from elliot. what that means is that the modelling is probably exaggerating both mulroney and elliot and under-estimating tga.

the reason this is happening is due to the phenomenon of women that lean hard to the right, but would vote for a centrist female candidate over a right-wing male candidate, at least on the first ballot, due to the overwhelming pull of identity politics. the modelling is going to get this completely backwards.

i still expect the results of the first ballot to be as follows:

1. ford.
2. elliot
3/4. tga / mulroney

i think the real race is between tga & mulroney for last - and it will be very close. tga could beat her in the end.

mulroney's votes would then go to elliot. but, tga's will go to ford in the end.

the result is that tga's effect in the race will be to steer votes from mulroney & elliot to ford, in the long run.

and, ford will win comfortably for that reason. 55-60%.

if tga were not running, i would still expect ford to win, but not by the same margin. in that scenario, it would really be the toss-up that the models are throwing out, because that path to ford wouldn't exist.