well, i'll acknowledge that this is a better approach than modelling for this election, as there is a potential for a large swing. but, i'll point out again that when you take a lot of crap and average it out, you're left with an average amount of crap.

i don't think the evidence that the pcs are polling over 40 right now is very strong.

what i want to point out, instead, is that this is the kind of headline the liberals would love to see replicated and picked up on. because the truth is that a lot of people are still voting against harris, rather than in favour of any specific liberal idea. these people are aging, though, too.

is there some value in the idea? i'm going to suggest that there is. harris was a brash neo-liberal that didn't give a fuck. ford is very much in the same mold.

the difference is that harris was still a tory, and was still able to hold a large amount of the old tory base. it took time for that to disintegrate, in revulsion at the shift towards markets (and just as a consequence of dying off). ford may do well amongst newer canadians, and that is a game changer, but he's going to have a harder time holding that red tory swing, which is still key in ontario for at least a little while longer. and, this is a cultural thing rather than a political thing - old tories are going to simply dislike him.

in the end, the election may depend on whether ford can hold his own party's traditional base or not, even as he makes large advances into traditional liberal voter territory. trump managed to do this. we'll see if ford can or not.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ford-harris-1.4636845