but, those numbers aren't very different than what was projected for the pcs four years ago, and in the end they only got 30 seats. due to systemic bias in telephone polling, you always need to take the pcs down to the bottom of the error bar and then some, so they're probably running around 34-35.
the big difference is movement from the liberals to the ndp, and it seems to be really monolithic. the numbers in the 905 - which is where the conservatives were supposed to win seats - are most surprising. with a decent sample size, and some consistency, it's starting to look the ndp could be making a huge breakthrough.
i understand that the firms are using likely voter data, but they're undoing their own numbers. why are so many liberals claiming they'll vote ndp if they aren't going to?
again: despite the commentary, i'm looking at this and not seeing any good reason to think the conservatives will win more than 40 seats.
the ndp could be on track to win 80 seats.
