Thursday, February 14, 2019


apparently, this guy was a bus driver before he was president.

he's not exactly a rhodes scholar.

what i said was:

if the americans wanted to get rid of maduro, they'd run an oil blockade for five minutes and watch the military take over. 
(http://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2019/01/if-americans-wanted-to-get-rid-of.html)

i've said that more than once, and i had to go back to check the language - i did say blockade, which is good, because it's what i meant.

a blockade is not an economic policy. it's not sanctions. a blockade is a military policy that means physically sending ships to venezuela to stop the movement of oil out of the country. and, while it is an act of war, the venezuelans would be insane to carry it through to it's logical conclusion. the venezuelan military would intervene after roughly five minutes.

so long as venezuela has a way to export the oil, it will at least try to do so. and, right now, america does not appear to have the standing - or the diplomatic ability - to stop that from happening. they're just stuck lookng at a nuclear-armed india down the barrel of a gun and saying "or else".

or else what?

not much, frankly.

but, the answer is to keep waiting. venezuela is simply too reliant on the united states for any scheme like this to last very long, and if maduro was more intelligent then he'd realize that and step away.

game theory assumes a rational opponent; you sometimes have to adjust for irrationality, but stupidity cannot overturn inevitability. and, there is simply no way out.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-maduro-shows-no-sign-of-leaving-now-what-11550097501