Friday, February 22, 2019

so, is assad a dictator or not?

i'm not running for office, so i don't have to pander. and, the fact is that it's a ridiculously ignorant way to frame the situation. i'm going to tell you the story the way i understand it, which may have more detail than any existing candidates are actually even aware of.

in terms of actual technical power, yes - assad is at the top of a hierarchy. but, so is the queen of england, and nobody actually cares what she says. assad is more like a constitutional monarch than an actual dictator - a powerless figurehead, thrust into power by accident. the real power is in the hands of the military, and currently even actually in the hands of the kremlin.

syria is under a military dictatorship, and has been for a long time. on the death of his father, who was an actual dictator (i think he even had a moustache), power was supposed to pass to assad's brother, who had been groomed for the position for many years. as the remaining assad was actually assumed to be out of the succession, he ended up in england, where he became an optometrist.

that's right: assad is actually an eye doctor. he didn't spend his youth studying machievelli, he spent it studying biology. he has a phd, and had a practice in london.

but, by circumstance, he found himself in power - sort of. he was a pawn of the generals from the start, making few decisions and projecting little influence. but, being back from england, with an english-born wife, he actually kind of had a thing for democracy. as a consequence, his focus on his return has not been to consolidate power, but to abolish it; assad's sole goal as the monarch of syria for years has been to prepare a path to step down. he actually put a constitution up to a referendum in 2012.

so, not only does he not actually have any real power as a head of state, but he's trying to get out of being the head of state altogether. i'm not sure if anybody's really explained it to him recently, but last i heard, he actually wanted to go back to his practice in london. some dictator, right?

the saudis of course have a hate-on for anything resembling democracy, and created havoc in the country in order to try to stop it from happening. had that not happened, he'd no doubt be back in london, tending to his practice. as it is, he's stuck in a complicated conflict that he has little influence over.

my guess is that putin thinks he's an imbecile that is incapable of governing.