unlike notley, trudeau actually has a realistic chance to win the upcoming election.

you'd have to think that there are still a sizeable number of people apprehensive about the conservative party, which was thrown out of power in a coalition intent on removing it, specifically; notley won against a split majority. the conservatives are still a minority nationwide, arguably even a weak one. the fundamental position of strength is on the liberals' sides, in terms of pure numbers. the hard question all of these people are having to face is if it's a better strategy to support the party, or try and work against it, but it's ultimately a meaningless question, because you have to unite in the end, anyways, to actually accomplish anything; if the liberals can build any kind of coalition around anything at all, they should have the pure numbers to win everywhere, decisively, so tactics towards unity should be aggressively deployed by anybody looking to do anything, and it follows that a liberal win becomes eminently plausible, which is believable because the liberals have held government for a disproportionate period of time over the last 100+ years. stated differently, this is a constant in canadian politics: the liberals always have an excellent chance of forming government.

unfortunately, the liberal party dismantled a large amount of that coalition when they came to power. it appears to be trying to reach deep into ethnic communities to make up the difference in voters, but i think it's a numerical miscalculation to conclude that this is even plausible. the uniform spread of something like election reform can't be replaced by a couple of localized sikh communities, even if the political financing involved in the latter is much greater. it seems to have been quite foolish to entirely throw these issues away, given the strategic value they had in the previous election.

it's just probably not going to be very hard to come up with a good reason why these ignored liberal left voters should cast a skeptical vote, even if they have to do a little bit better than basing a campaign around the negation of godwin's law.

so, of course the liberals can win the election. they just need to figure out how, first.