i'll remind you that the polling at this stage of the democratic primary is essentially being manipulated to generate headlines.

the media wants warren to win because they think they'll get the best ratings that way. they essentially want a rematch in terms of demographics. and, they think the pocahontas thing will boost ratings. it's the sad reality of it. so, they've been fucking with demographics to get the results they want, in an attempt to control the electorate, because they know that a substantial amount of people want to vote for the most popular candidate so they can tell their friends they voted for the winner, or they can feel like they won, or something stupid like that.

they clearly think biden is bad for ratings, and they're probably right. but, it's too early to expect the media framing to push him out. and, beware - because it's warren they're tying to ease in, not sanders. and, i don't know how that actually happens, in terms of actual, real voters on the ground.

and, they want to bury sanders altogether and be done with him.

there are certain demographic trends that you want to pay attention to. one of them is that sanders is not doing well with white voters right now; he has to get a handle on that, if he wants to win. but, the actual stories should be completely discarded as absolute nonsense, at this point.

in canada, you want to pay close attention to the undecideds, which i think i demonstrated pretty clearly the other day. in the last election, a large number of people were heavily engaged, and you could expect that the undecideds would make a choice. in this election, turnout is almost certainly going to fall. so, those conservative numbers are not as inflated as they were before.

frankly, at this stage in the process, the conservatives should be exceedingly worried about polling in the low 30s. for them to have a serious chance, they should be polling at at least 35%.

but, likewise, the liberals cannot be expecting to hold their majority with the numbers they have.

a deeper question is how inflated the ndp numbers are. they're only running at around 13-14%, before you adjust for turnout. those numbers will probably fall, but how far? is the better model to 1997 or to 1993? will they maintain party status?

and, are the bloc serious? because, if they are, we could end up with a nightmare scenario where the liberals win a plurality and, yet, the liberal + ndp + green totals are not enough to govern. the debate right now is whether the greens or the ndp end up with the balance.

it might end up being the bloc....