Wednesday, January 8, 2020

there's this idea that the fact that the united states didn't immediately respond indicates some kind of restraint.

under american law, it is the congress that has the power to declare war. there is one exception, and that's when america is attacked. see, and that's part of why what the iranians did here was so overwhelmingly stupid.

the united states is not currently at war against iran. so, if they had done just about anything else, trump would have been forced to introduce the measure into congress. as it is, he may claim the authority to declare a war, because they were attacked.

but, i think the correct reading of the delay is to deal with the legalities. i don't know what they think the best idea is, here, but it's going to be some combination of existing legislation, new legislation and executive order. it was probably pre-written.

it looks to me like iran essentially fell into a trap - trump wanted a war, but knew he couldn't get the congress to vote for one, so he goaded them into attacking him.

if he introduces it into congress, it could be as more of a political stunt then an actual governing decision. i know that a component of the democratic base thinks this is a no-brainer, but trust me when i say that this is going to be a bit of a problem for a klobuchar or a warren or even a sanders to have to deal with.

biden, buttigieg and bloomberg will at least be able to avoid a technical vote, but they're still in a difficult position of arguing against declaring a war against a country that attacked us troops. that's supposed to be an automatic war, basically. there's really no way out of this.

so, we'll see what he does. but, i'd expect him to do some combination of the following:

1) introduce legislation to declare war against iran
2) point to the ndaa in iraq as an authorization for some force
3) point to the part in the constitution where it says you can react to an attack

this is probably going to be a choreographed, big deal type of thing.

and, the iranians could have avoided it by being smart instead of being stupid. that's what putin should be looking at, here.