ok, so we're starting to see some shape with this.
the headlines are claiming sanders is in the lead, bloomberg is up & biden is down. they forgot to mention that buttigieg is up more than bloomberg. klobuchar's +2 is statistically a flat outcome.
so, biden is in free fall and the support appears to be splitting between buttigieg and bloomberg. if he falls another few points, buttigieg could maybe end up viable in some of these southern states, which is probably the best he can hope for. the rest of the field is roughly flat.
and, sanders? well, if the field stays the way it is, and he's the only guy that can clear 15%....
warren seems to be dragging a grudge around first and foremost, but biden is actually trying to win and will give up when it's clear that he can't, which might not be too far in the future. when that happens, some other candidate should emerge as a rising second, either bloomberg or buttigieg.
i don't understand who would vote for mike bloomberg, or why. i specifically can't imagine black voters staying with bloomberg, even if they refuse to vote for the jew or the gay. so, what do they do, exactly? i dunno. i will acknowledge that bloomberg is throwing a little bit of a wrench into my projections with this, but i think he has a relatively low ceiling. and, like biden, he will quit fairly quickly when his path is blocked. he won't drag this on, he will move on to something else. so, when you take them both off the ballot, who's next in line? steyer?
what's clear enough is that they're realigning against sanders rather than with him, and that sanders may have had this thing in the bag right now had he tried to organize around them rather than with them. instead, he's ceded a lot of ground to buttigieg & klobuchar & warren, while chasing outcomes that were never very likely.
he appears to be getting a bit of a break, though - he appears to be getting a bit of luck.
i told you months ago that sanders was going to have to split the black vote to win the nomination, then got frustrated with and eventually alienated by his refusal to face the facts on the matter, and instead contort his positions and destroy his legacy by chasing value systems that belong in the last century. now, here he is, observing his chances of winning the nomination increase dramatically by a developing split in the black vote that is developing as a consequence of his own negligence in consolidating white voters.
i also said months ago that he's going to have to heal the divisions after he splits the vote, if he wants to win the general. he might want to get to thinking about that by finding ways to reach out to these southern black groups that, frankly, simply don't like him.
he's done everything wrong, and it's not confidence-inducing. but, the incompetence and inability of his opponents to work together is opening up a gigantic hole for him to run through. and, they're running out of time to figure it out.
...if this isn't actually just theatre, anyways. of course.
the story is that biden's vote is splitting roughly evenly between buttigieg and bloomberg, both of whom may overtake him in the next round of polls. sanders, on the other hand, remains flat, but well ahead of the split field.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/nbcwsj-poll-sanders-leads-by-double-digits-as-biden-sinks-bloomberg-rises.html
the headlines are claiming sanders is in the lead, bloomberg is up & biden is down. they forgot to mention that buttigieg is up more than bloomberg. klobuchar's +2 is statistically a flat outcome.
so, biden is in free fall and the support appears to be splitting between buttigieg and bloomberg. if he falls another few points, buttigieg could maybe end up viable in some of these southern states, which is probably the best he can hope for. the rest of the field is roughly flat.
and, sanders? well, if the field stays the way it is, and he's the only guy that can clear 15%....
warren seems to be dragging a grudge around first and foremost, but biden is actually trying to win and will give up when it's clear that he can't, which might not be too far in the future. when that happens, some other candidate should emerge as a rising second, either bloomberg or buttigieg.
i don't understand who would vote for mike bloomberg, or why. i specifically can't imagine black voters staying with bloomberg, even if they refuse to vote for the jew or the gay. so, what do they do, exactly? i dunno. i will acknowledge that bloomberg is throwing a little bit of a wrench into my projections with this, but i think he has a relatively low ceiling. and, like biden, he will quit fairly quickly when his path is blocked. he won't drag this on, he will move on to something else. so, when you take them both off the ballot, who's next in line? steyer?
what's clear enough is that they're realigning against sanders rather than with him, and that sanders may have had this thing in the bag right now had he tried to organize around them rather than with them. instead, he's ceded a lot of ground to buttigieg & klobuchar & warren, while chasing outcomes that were never very likely.
he appears to be getting a bit of a break, though - he appears to be getting a bit of luck.
i told you months ago that sanders was going to have to split the black vote to win the nomination, then got frustrated with and eventually alienated by his refusal to face the facts on the matter, and instead contort his positions and destroy his legacy by chasing value systems that belong in the last century. now, here he is, observing his chances of winning the nomination increase dramatically by a developing split in the black vote that is developing as a consequence of his own negligence in consolidating white voters.
i also said months ago that he's going to have to heal the divisions after he splits the vote, if he wants to win the general. he might want to get to thinking about that by finding ways to reach out to these southern black groups that, frankly, simply don't like him.
he's done everything wrong, and it's not confidence-inducing. but, the incompetence and inability of his opponents to work together is opening up a gigantic hole for him to run through. and, they're running out of time to figure it out.
...if this isn't actually just theatre, anyways. of course.
the story is that biden's vote is splitting roughly evenly between buttigieg and bloomberg, both of whom may overtake him in the next round of polls. sanders, on the other hand, remains flat, but well ahead of the split field.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/nbcwsj-poll-sanders-leads-by-double-digits-as-biden-sinks-bloomberg-rises.html