2% of the people in the detro metro area would be 85,000 people infected.
there's roughly 100 known cases in all of michigan.
if 85% of the number of actual cases are unknown, a number used in models by epidemiologists, then the number of actual cases in all of michigan is pushing 700.
(2^n)*700 = 85000 <---> 2^n = 121.43 <---->nln2 = ln(121.43) <--->
n = 6.92398108175
n = 6.92398108175
so, if the number of active cases doubles every week, you've got 7 weeks before you get to 2% - which doesn't include dead or recovered cases.
and, you should be able to crunch 5% or 10% or whatever else you want - but understand that this is concurrent and if you get to a number like 20% concurrent then you must be peaking. that number might actually be impossible.
but, is 5% possible? you figure that out.
and, you should be able to crunch 5% or 10% or whatever else you want - but understand that this is concurrent and if you get to a number like 20% concurrent then you must be peaking. that number might actually be impossible.
but, is 5% possible? you figure that out.