Wednesday, March 11, 2020

i just want to clear up a kind of a nasty misperception about the voting shifts in michigan that's been floating around through the msm for a long time, and was probably ultimately seeded by the clinton campaign - that large amounts of bernie voters switched to trump in the general.

the data really suggests something very different.

it's been stated everywhere, repeatedly, over the last few days that democratic turnout was way down in the 2016 primary, which is something i pulled out in my 2016 analysis of michigan's 2016 primary. there were more republicans than democrats that year, oddly enough - enough that the independents were actually decisive in the outcome.

what i pointed out at the time was that trump was pulling in a lot of democrats, and that was actually a media narrative at the time, one that was very quickly forgotten. but, this time four years ago, what people were talking about was how trump was swinging clinton supporters, which was allowing bernie to win.

then, the general happened and people blamed the low turnout on bernie supporters switching parties, when the data had been there for months - trump was swinging disaffected, long term democrats who couldn't fucking stand hillary clinton, and had been since the start of the year. what took everybody a little off guard was the extent of it.....

and, who were these people? they were mostly older white voters.

now, here we are in 2020 and turnout is being driven higher on this stampede of middle aged white people, who are breaking hard for biden. but, who are these people? they were the democrats who switched to trump because they couldn't imagine voting for hillary.

i hope that this clarifies this point - and perhaps lays to rest this nasty myth about bernie voters swinging the election for trump.