so, i watched this, and let's be clear about what this actually is, and you don't have to take my word for it, you can listen to the doctors state it clearly themselves, repeatedly; this is not a serious scientific briefing and shouldn't be analyzed disingenuously as though it is one, what this is is an attempt to sort of scare people into staying inside, a justification for the economic shutdown as it has already occurred and is likely to continue occurring for quite some time.

they don't show their work, so who knows how they decided that the situation would be so much worse without the steps that have been taken, or if the truth isn't even that it already is, due to an apparent lack of actual testing. but, i'd be missing the point if i were to take the calculation seriously - these are just big numbers designed to reassure you that the steps that they've already taken are working so well, and we need to carry on that much longer.

i don't particularly want to impugn these people, because they legitimately realize that they're going to have capacity issues very soon, and they think they need to drastically alter public behaviour very quickly in order to prevent the system from overflow; the question of exactness is perhaps unimportant when faced with the requirement of such drastic social conditioning. but, i'm supposed to soberly analyze the data, here, and i can't do that, if i can't take it seriously.

they may even fully realize that what they're doing is futile, but they don't have a better idea.

so, this is really a desperate plea: they really, really, really want you to stay inside now, please.

i'm not commenting on the actual modelling.

slides here:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575