i again need to ask - what kind of effect has imperfect distancing (inevitable in a free society) had on the virus' evolution?
consider three scenarios. this is what einstein would call a 'thought experiment', meaning it's valid in abstraction, but you need to collect data to see if it's real or not.
1) scenario a is where you have no social distancing at all. in such a scenario, you would have no selective pressure on the virus to jump over large physical distances (via aerosols, or over surfaces). so, it is less likely that the virus would evolve to be more easily transmissible over wider physical distances, and the most widespread strains of the virus would be the least virulent ones.
2) scenario b is imperfect social distancing, where you might have people standing just close enough that transmission is barely possible, and you might have places (like debit machines) that almost everybody in a specific region touches with their hands, after or before touching their faces, without even being cognizant of it. this would create very strong selective pressures for the virus to mutate to become more transmissible. in scenario b, the most widespread strains of the virus would also be the most virulent.
3) scenario c is perfect social distancing, where a complete lack of transmission actually kills the virus off.
it doesn't take a dialectic to realize that scenario b is the most likely one when distancing rules are implemented in a free society. in the long run, that might be worse than scenario a. scenario c would be considered to be utopian and unrealistic.
if i understand correctly, this study is suggesting that the strain out of china was many times less transmissible than the strain that is dominant, now, and developed outside of the country - perhaps as a result of selective pressures created by distancing.
this should be a stark warning for future tactics.
viruses evolve.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/virus-has-mutated-into-10-types-one-now-dominant-across-regions-study/articleshow/75417399.cms