is montreal peaking?

well, they're at a little below 2200 deaths, and there is some suggestion that it's a little undercounted.

this was my projection:

3) montreal: (2800, 8399, 13999) [projection: low end]

the first number is a low estimate, the second is a middle estimate and the third is a high estimate. these are dependent not on the efficacy of social distancing but on different estimates of the mortality rate.

if they're actually at 2500 or so, they should cross the minimum barrier within a few days, meaning the numbers should start to slow down quite a bit.

remember: i don't think that total excess mortality much of anywhere is going to have much to do with what the government has or hasn't ordered people to do. so, i don't think that the end results are very dependent on government policy.

my low numbers have been a little too low in most places, but almost nowhere has actually reached the middle number yet. the only exception is new york city, where the population density is so dramatic, and i appear to have underestimated the effects of diabetes.

so, a reasonable expectation in montreal in the end is somewhere around 4000, regardless of what the government does.